How many points do Celtic need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage? New format explained
The Champions League is introducing wholesale changes to the format this season
The 2024/25 season promises to offer football fans a Champions League like nothing they have witnessed before with an increase from 32 to 36 teams and a total of 189 matches across the course of the competition as opposed to the original 125 that most supporters had been accustomed to.
The big shake-up is the first to take place in Europe’s elite competition in more than 20 years and is likely to have a profound impact on the landscape of many top leagues across the continent.
But what do the changes mean to Scottish champions Celtic’s hopes of progressing and what can fans expect from the new format? Here GlasgowWorld breaks down all the key changes that you need to know.
Why has the Champions League format been changed?
Talks over a dramatic reform to the Champions League began in 2019 and were a precursor to the failed European Super League attempt in April 2021.
The proposal, which was condemned by many fans in the football world, would have essentially made the Champions League - a closed shop with the same teams competing each year.
UEFA president Alexander Ceferin described the Super League as a “non-football project” but claims the new Champions League format strikes a competitive balance whilst generating greater revenues for clubs, leagues and grassroots football.
How does the new format work?
The Champions League group stage has officially been replaced by a league phase, which sees teams play eight games as opposed to the original six.
Teams in the competition will play four matches at home and four matches away against eight different opponents, rather than two matches home and away against the same three teams.
The league phase of the competition runs from Tuesday 17 September until Wednesday 29 January - meaning that Celtic will be involved in the competition for at least one extra month regardless of their performance.
The top eight placed sides in the league phase progress automatically into the round of 16. Meanwhile, the teams that finish between ninth and 24th will enter a two legged play-off round for the remaining eight knockout places.
All the teams that finish between 24th and 36th will be eliminated from the competition, alongside all those that fail to win their play-off game. There will be no team’s dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League in this year’s edition of the competition.
Celtic’s Champions League schedule
- Celtic vs Slovan Bratislava - Wednesday 18 September
- Borussia Dortmund vs Celtic - Tuesday 1 October
- Atalanta vs Celtic - Wednesday 23 October
- Celtic vs RB Leipzig - Tuesday 5 November
- Celtic vs Club Brugge - Wednesday 27 November
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Celtic - Tuesday 10 December
- Celtic vs BSC Young Boys - Wednesday 22 January
- Aston Villa vs Celtic - Wednesday 29 January
How many points do Celtic need to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage?
With the new format, the number of points required to progress to the knockout stage will differ greatly from the previous group stage system.
Football Meet Data claims that based on over 10,000 ELO-based scenarios, it is estimated that teams will need around 15 points to secure a place within the top eight.
This would typically require around five wins from eight matches or a combination of wins and draws.
Nine points is estimated to be enough to secure teams a minimum place in the top 24 which would provide them with an opportunity to compete in a two round play-off. This means that even with a few losses at the start, teams could still have a chance of progressing to the next stage.